The Wednesday Read: Election Analysis (So Far)

This race is hotter than a Times Square Rolex. – Dan Rather (2004)

Today’s topics include:

  • Counting Votes
  • House & Senate
  • Gianforte vs Williams
  • Rosendale vs Tester
  • One More Thing

Counting Votes:

It sure is exciting to wait for the election results to come in and see how the candidates are doing and to see if I picked a winner!

Except in Montana.

It’s always a long wait – very long. During the evening when Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota were reporting 100% of their votes, Montana was sitting at 68%. A couple of hours later, Montana had still only counted 74% of the votes.

I’m watching the count at 3:00 a.m. and Park County, Montana, is reporting 0%. What is wrong with these people?

The time that it takes Montana to count the votes is ridiculous and embarrassing. Shame on the election administrators for once again failing at their most important job.

It’s also ridiculous that it’s not the Montana Secretary of State’s election website that provides the most up to date results, but media websites that are out of state.

For some reason, the Montana Secretary of State’s election website had double entries for each candidate and issue.

The Legislature should address this counting problem and work with county election officials to find a way to quickly and accurately count the votes in Montana.

House & Senate:

It looks like the U.S. House will be controlled by the Democrats in 2019. In the past, I would think that this would force the Republican-controlled Senate and the Republican President to work with them. I doubt that is the case these days.

Trump and the Senate will have to play with the House Democrats. The Democrats in the House need to take this new-found power and use it properly. If they abuse it, they could give Trump an easy path to a second term.

The Republicans increased their majorities in the U.S. Senate. That means more conservative judges for Trump.

Gianforte vs Williams:

I predicted that Republican Greg Gianforte would beat Democrat Kathleen Williams by about 4% in the Montana At-Large House race. With about 80% of the vote counted, he is winning 53% – 44%.

It kind of proves the point that many Montanans like a thug who fights with the media.

I wonder if Gianforte will run for Governor in 2020.

Rosendale vs Tester:

UPDATE – AP BREAKING: Democrat Jon Tester wins re-election to U.S. Senate from Montana. #APracecall at 10:57 a.m. MST.

I am very surprised that this race is as close as it is. As I am writing this around 3:30 a.m. Rosendale leads Tester by about 2,188 votes. Tester still has about half the vote in progressive Missoula County to be counted and about a third of the vote in Cascade County and about 20% of the vote in Lewis & Clark County that should help him.

I remember back in 2006, watching my boss, Conrad Burns, lose to Tester by 3,562 votes. It is brutal to sit there and watch the numbers and hope beyond hope that those few votes can be overcome. It’s not a good way to lose.

Will Tester pull it out and beat Rosendale? I think if you consider what I said about the outstanding votes that need to be counted then maybe he will. Does anyone know if Brian Schweitzer is helping Tester this time?

One More Thing:

There are only 727 days until Election Day 2020.

Are you ready?



2 thoughts on “The Wednesday Read: Election Analysis (So Far)

  1. The Dems take the house and Maxine Waters has a committee chairwomanship. Let a thousand subpoenas blossom. Now we’ll see how real House investigations get done properly.

    • Doug – I like the oversight – and I hope they work together. It could backfire on the House Dems if they attack Trump too much. We are now in the 2020 election cycle. Thanks Doug! -JmB

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