If you don’t personally know someone who is running for elective office in Montana in 2012, you should probably get out more because 439 people filed for office – a record number – and every one of them wants to help YOU!

You’ve heard the television reporters talk about the primary filing deadline and you’ve read about it in your local papers – so now it’s time to hear from someone who actually knows something about it…

Today we’re going to take a look at some of the upcoming state-wide races and talk about Independents, the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, the Governor’s race, I’ll write about missing fingers, trolling for dirt, non-natives, early predictions, and much more – so read on!

Independents:

It’s extremely difficult for “Independent” candidates to make the ballot in Montana – just three filed in 2012 – but this is exactly the way the Republican and Democratic political parties like it.  Voters would have more choices if it were easier for Independent candidates to run for public office in Montana.

So which legislator will work to make it easier for Independent candidates to make the ballot in Montana?  Bueller, Bueller…

Rolling Sevens and Elevens:

The “open seats” of U.S. House of Representatives (At-Large) and Montana Governor both had 11 candidates filing.  Seven Democrats want to be a member of the U.S. House and seven Republicans want to be the next Governor.

The primary vote will be “watered” down some in these races which means that the winner of the primary probably won’t get over 50% of the vote (probably more in the 30-35% range).  It could also be ripe for an upset – but name recognition will be the key in the primary – so if you are a lesser-known candidate, it’s time to get your name out there…and show up at events where there’s a lot of people…

U.S. Senate Race:

Whoever wins the 2012 U.S. Senate race will probably receive just 50% of the vote (if that).  As I have written several times, Jon Tester won the seat in 2006 with 49% of the vote in the three-way race, with Libertarian Stan Jones getting 10,377 votes.  Tester won by 3,562 votes.

There will, once again, be a three way race for U.S. Senate in 2012.

With a Libertarian being on the ballot in the Senate race once again, this should cause some worry for Congressman Denny Rehberg (who is picked to win the contested Republican primary by most political observers) and that could take some of the conservative votes from Rehberg in a race that everyone says will be close.

Non-Natives:

We hear some of the candidates tout they are fourth-generation Montanans or fifth-generation Montanans, and that their great grandma and great grandpa came to Montana in a covered wagon.     Unfortunately, that does not seem to matter when it comes to hiring campaign staffers.  Both Republicans and Democrats hire out-of-staters.

So that brings up the questions:  Don’t the candidates want to put Montanans to work?  Aren’t Montanans intelligent enough to work on campaigns? 

Let’s Be Careful Out There:

Now is the time to troll for information about candidates (and their staffers) because the candidates are locked in.  Here’s a helpful hint to candidates and staffers: You should probably make your Facebook pages private and maybe even consider staying off your personal twitter account (especially when you are drinking) – I hope this little note (below) helps:

Dear Candidates and Staffers;

Do you remember that YouTube video?  Yep, I found it and it’s saved!  Do you remember that Facebook post with the photos?  I have it saved…  Remember that e-mail you sent to me where you told me to take this blog and ‘eff off?  Yep, it’s in a safe place, too…

People will be looking for stuff to hurt the candidate and win the election – don’t be that person – be careful out there!

With love,

Jack

Fair Game:

I guess it’s OK to joke about Jon Tester missing three fingers from his left hand.  I had kind of stayed away from mentioning it since I am such a nice fellow.

A reporter tweeted Saturday night from the Democratic Dinner that Attorney General (and candidate for Governor) Steve Bullock made a joke about Denny Rehberg and Jon Tester saying “@DennyRehberg can’t even count his accomplishments on @jontester’s left hand”

That was pretty funny…so please e-mail me the best ones to my e-mail address on the right!

Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and State Auditor:

The Western Word projects the winners in November will be the incumbents.  How’s that for an early prediction?

Attorney General:

This seat leans toward the Democratic candidate who wins the primary.  The Republican candidate for AG will probably be Tim Fox.  It will be an interesting race that will take a back seat because there are so many other (more) interesting races this November.

Montana Supreme Court #5 and #6:

I don’t care.  I don’t care.  I don’t care.  I have not been impressed with the Montana Supreme Court in years…

Candidates – please make me care…

State Legislative Races:

There are a lot of people who filed to take part in the circus in Helena in January (who knows why – except some feel like they are a God or Goddess while in Helena).  I’ll be taking a look at some of these races at a later date.

Follow Jack on Twitter @TheWesternWord