We’re starting to see campaign signs pop up across the state!  There are only 57 days until the General Election Day (Nov. 6) and 29 days until absentee ballots are mailed (Oct. 9 in Montana).

I am still undecided on most races – how about you?

Welcome to Monday and Monday Morning Politics!  Today I take a look at a defining issue in the Montana Governor’s race, 95 or 97 percent, a last hurrah, strike, convention polls, Ohio, national polls, and much more!

Defining Issue

Sometimes I hear about an issue during a campaign and I think, “This is the issue that will win (or lose) the election.”

That’s what I thought when I saw the ad that says Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Hill supports a sales tax in Montana.  Montanans don’t like sales taxes – and when it was brought to a vote in 1993, it lost with about 75% of the voters being against it.

It’s a killer for the Hill campaign and a winner for Democrat Steve Bullock.  On Friday I caught a story from the KRTV (CBS) “Political Reporter” about the issue.  You can read it HERE.

Hill will need to spend some serious cash to get the word out that he does not support a sales tax – but the evidence is pretty overwhelming that he did support a sales tax in the past – and that makes it a winning issue for the Bullock campaign.

95% or 97%?

If you live in Montana then you’ve probably seen the campaign ads supporting Congressman Denny Rehberg that tells us U.S. Senator Jon Tester votes with President Barack Obama 95% of the time.  In case you don’t know, Rehberg is challenging Tester for the U.S. Senate seat that Tester currently holds.

But, there’s another campaign advertisement that states Tester votes with Obama 97% of the time.  So which one is correct?

The Montanans for Rehberg ad “Twins” is the latest ad that has the 95% line, and a National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) ad called “Number One” that was posted September 4 has the 97% charge.  There are e-mails and other ads with the same two percentages.

Maybe they are trying to prove they don’t coordinate with each other? 

Hopefully, the Rehberg campaign spokesperson and the NRSC spokesperson will send me an e-mail with background on these ads.  ( western_word@yahoo.com )

Last Hurrah?

Over at the Flathead Memo, James R. Conner writes, “Is this Kim Gillan’s last hurrah?” about Gillan being “down in the polls, cash poor compared to Steve Daines, forsaken by national and state Democrats, drawing small crowds, and just not catching fire.”

He also contends Montana’s lone House seat is a “low priority” for the Montana Democrats.  It’s a great read and there are charts!  Catch the story HERE.

While “it’s not over until the fat lady sings” there needs to be a major development for Gillan to win this race.

Strike

Chicago teachers went out on strike today – their first strike in 25 years.  Let’s hope they reach an agreement quickly.

I remember walking the picket line with my father when I was a child when his union (Operating Engineers) was on strike.  He was my hero then, and although he is long-departed, he still is today.

Dem Convention Better than GOP

Gallup reports “Forty-three percent of Americans say what they saw at last week’s Democratic Convention makes them more likely to vote for Barack Obama — typical of what Gallup has measured for most conventions — and slightly better than the 40% reading for Mitt Romney and the recent Republican Convention.”

I enjoyed the speeches from the Democratic Convention much more than the Republican Convention. 

Back to Ohio

Public Policy Polling released a new poll for Ohio yesterday showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45.  As I mentioned Friday, Ohio is the state that many folks feel whichever candidate wins will win the 2012 Presidential Election.

Gallup conducts a seven-day rolling national poll that has Obama up 49%-44% as of Saturday.

Rasmussen Reports conducts a daily national Presidential Tracking Poll that has Obama up 49%-45% as of Sunday.

Why is this important?  The Presidential candidate ahead in mid-September usually wins the election.

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