With the news and speculation that State Senator Jeff Essmann (R-Billings) will probably announce he is running for Governor tonight, the Montana Republican Party will have some work to do between now and January 12, 2012.

Before I get to the “work” part let me say that Essmann could be announcing he is becoming Rick Hill’s running mate, but most of my contacts (those on the right who still talk to me) believe he is running for Governor.  Hill does need someone from Montana’s largest city as his running mate.  If it’s not Essmann then he needs someone to help get votes from Billings in the primary and, if he gets that far, the general election.

Now to the work that will need to be done.  January 12 of next year is the first day to file for office in the 2012 election season.  The last day to file is March 12, 2012, at 5:00 p.m.

This work has to be covert in nature!  The job is to weed out the weaker candidates who are planning to file for the Republican nomination for Governor – and you can’t tick them off while getting them to decide not to file for office.  The GOP leadership or their proxy will have to use their words carefully – they will have to say things like “for the good of the party” or “you can have a cabinet position,” etc.

You’ll probably read or hear (maybe you already have) that the GOP welcomes all the candidates under their big tent, but in the back of their minds they are hoping that the 2012 race for Montana Governor does not go the way of the 2008 U.S. Senate race featuring Bob Kelleher against Max Baucus – which was a total disaster.

Historians (political junkies) may remember that perennial candidate for office Bob Kelleher won a six-way Republican U.S. Senate primary in 2008 by almost 10,000 votes and was then battered by Max Baucus in the General Election by about 219,000 votes (73% to 27%).

There’s nothing wrong with contested primaries – candidates can raise more money and they get their name out in the public more – but having more than what is quickly approaching enough Republican candidates for governor to field a football team will be confusing to the voters if they all file for office.

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