Back on November 4, The Western Word (TWW) compiled a list of the 10 most vulnerable Senators up for re-election in 2012. My research and the subsequent story received plenty of attention, plus many hits on this website.

Since then, several newspapers, political websites, and blogs have followed that up with their own stories – sometimes using information first disclosed here at TWW.

Last Sunday, the Great Falls Tribune chimed in with their version running this story: “Tester high on GOP’s hit list, observers say.”

On the web version of the story, the Tribune showed a photo of Jon Tester “on his farm near Big Sandy.” I did not see the symbolic tractor in the photo…

The Tribune, in their ever-reaching attempt to make some coin, placed this little Editor’s note after a few paragraphs of the story on their website: “This exclusive story is available only to the Tribune’s print and e-paper customers.”

Exclusive? Fortunately, I subscribe to the dead tree version of the Tribune. I also recycle it. That last sentence is for my green friends…

Observations from the Tribune story:

Tester’s spokesman said his boss “is focused” “on creating jobs, cutting spending…” blah, blah, blah.

Focused? Unemployment has gone up significantly since he was sworn in and using a Tester term from 2006, Washington is spending like drunken sailors. They still are. Maybe a better term to use today is that Tester and his party are spending money like crack addicts. Let’s give sailors a break…we’re way past that type of spending…and sailors deserve our respect.

His spokesman said Tester doesn’t pay attention to polls.

Sure he doesn’t. I guess that’s why he started campaigning last summer (over two years out from his election date). Every elected official has internal polling going on as they approach the time when they are “in cycle” (two years out from their election). Political consultants don’t just hop on the campaign train a few months out – they are devising campaign plans and strategy a long time before election day. Since Tester announced he was running months ago, his campaign team has been hard at work.

A Little History:

Historical data (I keep everything) shows that Tester was down by 24 points about 18 months out from Election Day 2006 when he was running against an incumbent. Now, he is the incumbent. His votes are recorded. His speeches and press releases are there for all to scrutinize. It’s a lot tougher for him now. He can’t be for everything any more. Bush is gone. Healthcare is here.

Last week, a Democratic-leaning poll shows Tester is down two points to Rehberg who has not announced he is running and seven points to Racicot who has not announced he is running and only ahead by 11 points to Daines who has announced he is running.

Frankly, it looks pretty good for anyone who wants to run against Tester right now. The boys and/or girls who are thinking about running against Tester need to get together and decide who has the best chance of winning and unite behind them.

What goes around, comes around:

In March 2005, the Montana Democratic Party proclaimed in a press release that Conrad Burns was vulnerable. At that time Burns had a 49% favorable rating. Tester has a 50% favorable rating in the recently released Democratic-leaning poll.

Just as the Democrats successfully tied (with lots of help from the Montana media) Abramoff around Burns’ neck in 2006, the Republicans can easily tie Obama, Reid, and Pelosi around Tester’s neck in 2012.

In fact, they are already around his neck and pulling him down. The polls show it and team Tester knows it.

Showing a video of your haircut and standing in front of a tractor may not be enough in 2012.