Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.
― Emma Lazarus
Today’s quick hits deal with these important subjects:
- MTN/MSU Poll
- Montana Victory Tour
- Trump Approval
- Talking Points
- TWW World Series Poll
The long-awaited Montana Television Network-Montana State University poll on 2018 electoral races in Montana was partially released Monday night starting with the premier race in Montana for U.S. Senate.
The poll shows Democratic incumbent Jon Tester holding a narrow lead over Republican challenger Matt Rosendale, 46 percent to 43 percent. Libertarian Rick Breckenridge comes in at 2.6%. There are 6.5% who are undecided.
The poll has an error margin of plus-or-minus 2 percent. There were 2,079 people who responded to the poll, which was done by mail.
Here is my expert analysis:
Since Tester has had everything thrown at him (Presidential campaign visits, VP campaign visits, and the President’s son and his girlfriend campaigning) he must feel like he is in good shape. He is only pulling in 46% which is a little scary.
A good thing for Tester is the Libertarian is pulling in almost 3% of the vote. I think that may harm Rosendale just as it did Burns in 2006 and Rehberg in 2012.
The 6.5% of undecideds shows that there’s still a chance for both candidates to gain support. There was also a category of Other/None of the above that pulled in another 1.6%. That gives this race 8.1% who aren’t picking any of them, yet.
You can find arguments on both sides about late deciders, but I think more than half will decide to stay with the person they know instead of the challenger when push comes to shove.
Some are calling this race a toss-up. I beg to differ. Tester will win this race by around 5%. I think he will get 50% of the vote for the first time.
You can see the story from MTN about the poll by clicking HERE.
Montana Victory Tour:
U.S. Senate candidate Matt Rosendale and U.S. Representative Greg Gianforte will by doing a “Montana Victory Tour” across Montana on October 26-27.
Special guests on the tour will be Donald Trump Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle, and U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY).
There will be rallies in eight locations across Montana. Click HERE for more information.
Watch out – President Donald Trump’s approval rating is climbing! According to Gallup, Trump’s job approval rating has improved to 44% each of the past two weeks. Trump’s weekly approval rating was 38% in mid-September and had been averaging 40% from late July through late September.
A few more points and he could easily win reelection!
The President seems to be working on the GOP talking points ahead of the mid-term election. Basically, he is scaring people and offering them money.
His big thing lately is to blame the migrant caravan that is supposedly headed to the United States on Democrats. For example, he sent this Tweet:
Every time you see a Caravan, or people illegally coming, or attempting to come, into our Country illegally, think of and blame the Democrats for not giving us the votes to change our pathetic Immigration Laws! Remember the Midterms! So unfair to those who come in legally.
Trump contends that those in the caravan are being paid by Democrats!
Trump also contends there are “Criminals and unknown Middle Easterners are mixed in” in the caravan.
The other issue that he has mentioned was a 10% middle-class tax cut and told people it would happen before the midterms, but since Congress is out on recess campaigning that was a lie. He then changed his tune and said it would be introduced before and voted on after the election.
Who cares about the deficit because we have elections to win!
It seems there are many things that Trump says or that he posts on Twitter that is a lie.
I think Team Trump is feeling the heat of possibly losing the House and Senate to the Democrats, so he’s trying everything to get voters to support the GOP. I don’t think the Senate will change majorities, but I think the House has a good chance to flip to the Democrats.
TWW World Series Poll:
The World Series starts tonight! I have a poll asking who my readers think will win, Dodgers or Red Sox. Click HERE to take the poll.
The results will be posted Thursday or Friday.