Daily Archives: November 3, 2008

Voting Concerns

A recent poll by Gallup tells us that most Americans do not think that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted.

Gallup reported, “As Americans cast their ballots in this year’s historic presidential election, just 18% are very confident that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted, down sharply from 29% who said so just prior to the 2004 election.”

Gallup also reported, “…nearly half of Americans (44%) say they expect votes cast by people who are ineligible to be a “major problem” in this year’s election.”

Since Montana’s Governor, Brian Schweitzer (D), bragged about turning some dials to help his friend, Jon Tester, win in 2006, many folks I have spoken with in this state are worried about a fair election.

We might have quieted these ill feelings some if Montana Attorney General Mike McGrath (D) would have conducted an investigation into the matter. He refused to investigate his friend. Personally, I would have liked to have seen McGrath check into the Governor’s cell phone and office calls made on Election Day to see if he contacted more officials about counting the votes than he actually bragged about.

Of course, the latest issue with ACORN (with ties to Obama) registering Mickey Mouse in Florida and Monica Ray 10 times in Missouri cast doubt in voters’ minds. Coupled with the Florida issue in 2000, people have a right to be concerned.

It might be best to take Governor Schweitzer’s cell phone for the day. He has more at stake in this race than he did in 2006.

The Polls

Hopefully sometime late Tuesday night, we’ll find out which polls for the Presidential election got it right. For the hundreds of pollsters around the country, this is more important than who wins.

My family has been polled about 12 times in the last few weeks. I always take the time to participate, except for the time the pollster called during the Vice Presidential debate. I kind of abruptly told her, “Don’t you know there’s a VP debate going on RIGHT NOW-call me back later!” She called back after it was over.

For a local race, the pollster asked me about a candidate running as a Democrat for state senate. The funny part was that this candidate had lost in the primary. I played along; besides I was voting for the Republican any way.

I subscribe to several polls. When reading their e-mails, I like to see the party breakdown of the polling, if they disclose it. One poll I subscribe to has consistently sampled about 5% more Democrats than Republicans. Their polls have shown Obama with a five point lead lately. Last night, USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicted that Barack Obama would be elected the 44th president of the United States. That seems a little premature for me since it was released two days before Election Day.

The poll that supposedly got it closer last Presidential Election than any others was the IDP/TIPP poll. Yesterday, that poll showed Obama up by 2.1 percent, with 8.7 percent undecided. It seems McCain is inching closer according to their polling.

Each of the candidates has their own internal polling going on in the different states. Several years ago while volunteering for a candidate, we went out to eat dinner late Monday night before Election Day on Tuesday. Around 10:00 p.m. he received a call from his political party’s pollster telling him they had crunched all the numbers and by all accounts he would win the election by around three points. The next night, he won the election by 3.3.%. Of course, there could have been some issue or event that kept voters from getting to the polls, like a major blizzard or a something else, but if nothing major happened on Election Day, he was going to win, and he did. The political party’s internal polling is probably better than what the polls we read about in the newspapers and on the internet tell us.

So, sometime tonight John McCain and Barack Obama will get that call. They will know if they are going to win this election (if nothing major happens). On Tuesday when they go and cast their votes, one will be putting on smile because he has to; the other one will be smiling because he knows he’s a winner.